Review Article
Emily Sonestedt1*, Nina Cecilie Øverby2, David E. Laaksonen3 and Bryndis Eva Birgisdottir4
1Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden; 2Department of Public Health, Sport and Nutrition, University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway; 3Department of Medicine, Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland; 4Unit for Nutrition Research, Landspitali-University Hospital and University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
Abstract
Consumption of sugar has been relatively high in the Nordic countries; the impact of sugar intake on metabolic risk factors and related diseases has been debated. The objectives were to assess the effect of sugar intake (sugar-sweetened beverages, sucrose and fructose) on association with type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and related metabolic risk factors (impaired glucose tolerance, insulin sensitivity, dyslipidemia, blood pressure, uric acid, inflammation markers), and on all-cause mortality, through a systematic review of prospective cohort studies and randomised controlled intervention studies published between January 2000 and search dates. The methods adopted were as follows: the first search was run in PubMed in October 2010. A second search with uric acid as risk marker was run in April 2011. The total search strategy was rerun in April 2011 in SveMed+. An update was run in PubMed in January 2012. Two authors independently selected studies for inclusion from the 2,743 abstracts according to predefined eligibility criteria. The outcome was that out of the 17 studies extracted, 15 were prospective cohort studies and two were randomised controlled crossover trials. All of the studies included only adults. With respect to incident type 2 diabetes (nine studies), four of six prospective cohort studies found a significant positive association for sugar-sweetened beverage intake. In general, larger cohort studies with longer follow-up more often reported positive associations, and BMI seemed to mediate part of the increased risk. For other metabolic or cardiovascular risk factors or outcomes, too few studies have been published to draw conclusions. In conclusion, data from prospective cohort studies published in the years 2000–2011 suggest that sugar-sweetened beverages probably increase the risk of type 2 diabetes. For related metabolic risk factors, cardiovascular disease or all-cause mortality and other types of sugars, too few studies were available to draw conclusions.
Keywords: sugar; fructose; sugar-sweetened beverages; systematic review; Nordic nutrition recommendations
Received: 15 November 2011; Revised: 20 January 2012; Accepted: 28 May 2012; Published: 30 July 2012
Food & Nutrition Research 2012. © 2012 Emily Sonestedt et al. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 Unported License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), permitting all non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Citation: Food & Nutrition Research 2012. 56: 19104 - http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/fnr.v56i0.19104
The present literature review is a part of the fifth version of the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR) project with the aim of reviewing and updating the scientific basis of the fourth edition of the NNR issued in 2004 (1). The NNR5 project is mainly focused on a revision of those areas in which new scientific knowledge has emerged since the fourth edition, with special relevance for the Nordic setting. A number of systematic literature reviews will form the basis for establishment of dietary reference values in the fifth edition of NNR.
The present expert group was to systematically review studies regarding carbohydrate quantity and quality in association with health outcomes. To limit the scope, the group first reviewed the Dietary Guidelines from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) (2–4) and the Dietary Reference Values from European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) (5), both published in 2010, especially with respect to how values from those reports differ from each other and from the NNR 2004. The dietary reference values from EFSA (5) and the dietary guidelines from USDA (3, 4), which are partly based on a series of literature reviews, and the NNR from 2004 (1) are similar with respect to total intake of carbohydrates (45–60E%, 45–65E% and 50–60E%, respectively) and fibre for adults (25, 25–35 and 25–35 g/day, respectively). Neither the opinion from EFSA nor the report from USDA found sufficient evidence to support the role of the glycaemic index and glycaemic load in maintaining weight and preventing metabolically related diseases in healthy adults. However, dietary reference values and guidelines for sugars are not consistent. The NNR from 2004 recommends limiting refined sugar intake to no more than 10% of total energy intake (E%), whereas EFSAs Scientific Opinion on Dietary Reference Values states that the scientific data are insufficient to define an upper limit and USDA Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee suggests a maximal added sugar intake of 25% or less of total energy (3). In contrast, the USDA policy document recommends that combined added sugar and solid fat intake be limited to 5–15E% (4).
The basis for the recommendation of maximum 10E% from refined sugars in the NNR from 2004 is mainly based on association with caries in the oral cavity and lower nutrient density of the food with increasing sugar intake in the Nordic countries. In recent years, however, interest has been revived in the potential role of sugar-sweetened beverages, added sugar and total fructose intake in the development of metabolic and cardiovascular diseases and risk factors (6–11), but whether sugar plays a causal role is still much debated (8, 11). This issue was not approached in detail in the previous NNR (1).
Sugar consumption has increased dramatically in the world, including the Nordic countries, over the last decades; the increase in sugar intake from sugar-sweetened beverages has been especially prominent (6). The increase has been more pronounced among older children, adolescents and young people. In the Nordic countries, the mean intake of refined sugar was approximately 8–12E% in 1997–2009 (12–16). At the same time the prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes has increased dramatically in the Nordic countries.
We chose to focus on sugar intake in relation to disease development because of the relatively high sugar intake in Nordic countries and the discrepancy in recommendations. Because the World Health Organisation is performing a systematic literature review on sugar and obesity, and because a systematic review was previously performed in association with the USDA recommendations (2), this endpoint was not included in the search.
The aim of this systematic literature review was to assess the effect of sugar intake (sugar-sweetened beverages, sucrose and fructose) on association with type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and related metabolic risk factors (impaired glucose tolerance, insulin sensitivity, dyslipidemia, blood pressure, uric acid, inflammation markers), and all-cause mortality, through a systematic review of prospective cohort studies and randomised controlled intervention studies published in 2000–2010.
We defined the literature search and criteria for inclusion and exclusion (set prior to abstract screening) based on the following aspects:
The literature search was performed in collaboration with a librarian in order to ensure objectivity. Search terms are presented in Appendix 1. The first search was run in October 2010 in Medline through the PubMed platform, supplied by United States National Library of Medicine (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed). Papers from January 2000 to October 2010 were included. An additional search was done including uric acid as an outcome (April 2011) with the search terms ‘Uric acid’ (Mesh) and Uric* (Title/Abstract). In this search the time limits were slightly changed to include articles from January 2000 to April 2011. Furthermore, in April 2011 the whole search was rerun in a second database, SveMed+, supplied by the Karolinska Institute in Sweden (http://micr.kib.ki.se/) (April 2011), in order to include multiple databases in the systematic literature review. An update was run in Medline through the PubMed platform in January 2012 for the time period October 2010 through December 2011 to identify articles that would change the conclusion from the search until October 2010.
After receiving the list of abstracts, two groups of two experts reviewed the same abstracts independently. The four experts individually reported to the librarian the articles to order in full text. Relevant systematic reviews and meta-analyses were also requested to ensure that all relevant studies were included in this systematic review. A paper was ordered in full text if one of the experts chose to include the paper. Abstracts not relevant for the research questions were excluded and reasons given. Papers from other sources were also ordered from the librarian after going through abstracts, full text papers and literature lists. The full text papers were again reviewed by two independent experts. The experts jointly decided which articles to include. The excluded articles were listed with reasons for exclusion (Appendix 2).
To assess study quality of the included studies, Quality Assessment Tools with a number of questions regarding several aspects of the study (including study design, population characteristics, exposure measure and outcome measures) were used (17). Two experts assessed the quality of the same studies independently and potential disagreement between experts was discussed in the whole group. The quality was assessed for all included studies and ranged from A to C (18). After the quality assessment of individual studies, the results of the quality assessment were summarised to evaluate the quality and strength of the evidence in relation to the research questions posed. The evidence for each outcome was categorised according to the directions given by the NNR5 committee guidelines into three categories: convincing, probable, limited-suggestive and limited-no conclusion.
The original search resulted in 2,614 abstracts (Fig. 1). Together with the search for uric acid (68 abstracts) and the search in the SveMed+ database (61 abstracts), a total of 2,743 abstracts were identified. From these sources 85 abstracts (72 from original search, 9 from uric acid search and 4 from SveMed+ search) were selected for further consideration. From systematic reviews and other sources we identified four other articles to order in full text. Out of these, 17 articles (14 from the original search, 1 from the uric acid search and 2 from other sources) met the inclusion criteria and were included in this literature review (Tables 1 and 2). None of the included studies reached the highest level of quality (A). The majority of the 17 identified studies were prospective observational studies (n = 15). All of the studies included adults only; none of the studies included children or adolescents.
Fig. 1.
Results of the search.
Reference | Cohort, country | No. of participants | Age, gender | Exposure | Diet method | Outcome | Follow-up | Confounder adjustments | Quality |
Bomback et al. (33) | Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), USA | 9,451 | Mean age: 52–54 y, men and women | Sugar-sweetened soft drinks | Semi-quantitative FFQ | Hyperuricemia | 3 y | Age, sex, BMI, sodium intake, caloric intake, hypertension, diabetes, tobacco and alcohol use, education, field centre and race | B |
de Koning et al. (28) | Health Professionals follow-up Study, USA | 40,389 | 40–75 y, men | Sugar-sweetened beverages | Semi-quantitative FFQ | Type 2 diabetes | 20 y | Age, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, multivitamin use, family history of type 2 diabetes, high TG at baseline, high blood pressure, use of diuretics, weight change, adherence to a low calorie diet in 1994, the alternative healthy eating index, energy intake | B |
Dhingra et al. (19) | Framingham Heart Study, USA | 6,039 person-observations | Mean age: 53 y, 57% women | Soft drinks (both regular and diet) | Physician-administered questionnaire | Metabolic syndrome and individual components (waist, fasting glucose, blood pressure, fasting TG, HDL-C) | 4 y | Baseline levels of metabolic syndrome component, age, sex, physical activity, smoking, saturated fat, trans fat, fiber, magnesium, total calories, glycaemic index | B |
Duffey et al. (20) | CARDIA, USA | up to 2,639 | 18–30 y, 53–66% women | Sugar-sweetened beverages (sugar-sweetened soda and fruit drinks) | Semi-quantitative interviewer-administered diet history FFQ | Blood pressure, fasting lipids, glucose and insulin | 20 y | Race, age, sex, weight, smoking, physical activity, calories from food, calories from other beverages, calories from alcohol, center | B |
Forman et al. (23) | Nurses Health Study I, II, Health Professionals Follow up study, USA | NHS1: 88,540; NHS2: 97,315; HPFS: 37,37 | Age, women and men | Fructose | Semi-quantitative FFQ administered at baseline and every 4 y | Hypertension | NHS1: 20 y; NHS2: 14 y; HPFS: 18 y. | Age, BMI, physical activity, smoking, family history of hypertension, intake of alcohol, caffeine, folate and vitamin C | B |
Fung et al. (34) | Nurses Health Study, USA | 88,520 | 34–59 y, women | Sugar-sweetened soda and fruit drinks | Semi-quantitative FFQ administered at baseline and every 4 y | Coronary heart disease | 24 y | Age, smoking, alcohol intake, family history of coronary heart disease, physical activity, aspirin use, menopausal status, postmenopausal hormone use, history of hypertension, history of high cholesterol, diet (alternate healthy eating index) | B |
Hodge et al. (24) | Melbourne Collaborative Cohort, Australia | 31,276 | 40–69 y, women and men | Sugars | 121-item FFQ | Type 2 diabetes | 4 y (baseline 1990–94) | Age, sex, country of birth, physical activity, family history of diabetes, education, alcohol intake, previous weight change, BMI, waist-hip-ratio | C |
Janket et al. (25) | Women's Health Study, USA | Mean age: 54 y, women | Total sugars, sucrose, fructose | semi-quantitative FFQ | Diabetes | 6 y | Age, smoking, alcohol intake, multivitamin use, family history of diabetes, vigorous exercise, BMI, postmenopausal hormone use, history of hypertension, history of high cholesterol | B | |
Meyer et al. (26) | Iowa Women's Health Study, USA | 35,988 | 55–69 y, women | Sucrose, fructose | FFQ | Type 2 diabetes | 6 y | Age, energy intake, BMI, waist:hip ratio, education, smoking, alcohol intake and physical activity | B |
Montonen et al. (27) | Finnish Mobile Clinic Health Examination Survey, Finland | 4,304 | 40–69 y, 46% women | Total sugars, sucrose, fructose, soda drinks | Dietary history interview (consumption during previous year) | Type 2 diabetes | 12 y (baseline 1966–72) | Age, sex, BMI, energy intake, smoking, geographical area, physical activity, family history of diabetes and dietary pattern | B |
Odegaard et al. (29) | Singapore Chinese Health Study, China | 43,580 | 45–74 y, 46–59% women | Soft drinks | Semi-quantitative FFQ during previous year (face-to-face interview-based), eight frequency and three portion sizes. | Type 2 diabetes | 6 y (baseline 1993–1998) | Age, sex, dialect, year of interview, educational level, smoking status, alcohol use, physical activity, saturated fat, dietary fiber, dairy, juice/soft drink, coffee BMI and energy intake | B |
Paganini-Hill et al. (35) | Leisure World Cohort, USA | 13,624 | 44–101 y, 63% women | Sugar-sweetened soft drinks (cola beverages with sugar; other soft drinks with sugar) | FFQ | Mortality | 23 y (baseline 1981) | Age, sex, smoking, exercise, BMI, alcohol, histories of hypertension, angina, heart attack, stroke, diabetes rheumatoid arthritis, cancer | C |
Palmer et al. (32) | Black Women's Health Study, USA | 43,960 | 21–69 y, women | Sugar-sweetened soft drinks; other fruit drinks (80% are sweetened) | FFQ (frequency and three portion sizes) | Type 2 diabetes | 10 y (baseline 1995) | Age, family history of diabetes, physical activity, cigarette smoking, education, the other drinks, red meat, processed meats, cereal fiber, coffee, glycaemic index | B |
Paynter et al. (31) | Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), USA | 12,204 | 45–64 y, 56% women | Sweetened beverages | Interview-administered semi-quantitative FFQ | Type 2 diabetes | 3, 6 or 9 y | Study center, age, race, education, family history of diabetes, BMI, waist-hip ratio, energy intake, dietary fiber, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and hypertension | B |
Schulze et al. (30) | Nurses Health Study II, USA | 91,249 | 26–46 y, women | Sugar-sweetened soft drinks | Semi-quantitative FFQ | Type 2 diabetes | 8 y (baseline 1991, updated 1995) | Age, alcohol intake, physical activity, family history of diabetes, smoking, postmenopausal hormone use, oral contraceptive use, fiber, magnesium, trans fat, PUFA:SFA ratio and consumption of diet soft drinks, fruit juice and fruit punch | B |
Reference | Country | Study design | No. of participants | Age | BMIa | Intervention diet | Control diet | Outcome | Follow-up | Dropout/Compliance | Quality |
Bantle et al. (21) | USA | Randomised crossover | 24 (12 men) | <32 (average 25) | 17E% fructose | 14E% glucose, 3E% fructose | Plasma lipids, plasma glucose, serum insulin | 6 weeks | No information | B | |
Black et al. (22) | UK | Randomised crossover | 13 men | Mean age: 33 y | <35 (average 26.6) | 25E% sucrose | 10E% sucrose | Plasma glucose, serum insulin, insulin sensitivity, blood pressure, serum lipids | 6 weeks | 1 dropout | B |
In the additional search (November 2010–December 2011), including 545 abstracts, 4 papers met the inclusion criteria and were considered of interest. These papers did not change the conclusion and were therefore not quality assessed or included in the paper.
Two prospective observational studies investigated the association between consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and incident dyslipidemia (19, 20). Both studies found a positive association with high triglycerides (Table 3), as well as with low LDL cholesterol in the study including this endpoint (20). However, one of the studies also found a positive association to HDL cholesterol (19), while the other study found no significant association to this marker (20). Furthermore, both of these studies investigated the association between sugar-sweetened beverages and incidence of impaired fasting glucose. One found a positive association (19) while the other found no association (20) (Table 4). A 6-week randomised cross-over trial in 12 men and 12 women comparing high fructose vs. glucose intake (17E%), found adverse effects of the high-fructose diet on triglyceride concentrations in men but not in women and on no other marker of blood lipids, i.e. total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol or HDL cholesterol. Daylong serum insulin values were lower on the fructose diet while there was no difference in plasma glucose (21). In a 6-week randomised cross-over trial in 13 men comparing high (25E%) vs. moderate (10E%) sucrose intake in diets otherwise matched for macronutrient and fibre composition, total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol concentrations where higher after the high sucrose intake, but no difference in concentration of triglycerides or HDL cholesterol or insulin and glucose were found (22).
Reference | Study design | Exposure | Outcome | No of participants (incident cases) | Effect/association |
Bantle et al. (21) | Randomised crossover | 17E% fructose diet (14E% added sugar) vs. glucose diet (14E% glucose, 3E% naturally occurring fructose). | Fasting cholesterol, HDL, TG, calculated LDL, measured LDL, apoB, 24 h metabolic profile of TG | 24 | Fructose vs. glucose diet:Cholesterol: 4.30 vs. 4.22, P=0.17LDL: 2.49 vs. 2.49, P=0.76HDL: 1.30 vs. 1.30, P=0.97Plasma TG: in women: 0.93 vs. 0.97, P=0.63; in men: 1.25 vs. 0.95, P<0.00124 h metabolic profiles of plasma TG: women: 31 vs. 30 P=0.72, men: 46 vs. 35 P<0.001 |
Black et al. (22) | Randomised crossover | 25E% sucrose vs. 10E% sucrose diets | total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, TG | 13 | 10E% sucrose vs. 25E% sucrose diet:Total cholesterol: 4.01 vs. 4.62 p < 0.01LDL 2.25 vs. 2.78 p < 0.01HDL 1.2 vs. 1.2 NSTG 0.92 vs. 0.95 NS. |
Dhingra et al. (19) | Prospective cohort | Soft drinks | Incidence of hypertriglyceridemia (≥1.7 mmol/L); low HDL (<1.03 mmol/L) | TG: 6,382 (1,093), HDL: 5,763 (739) | OR for ≥1 servings/day vs. none:TG:=1.25 (1.04–1.51)HDL: OR = 1.32 (1.06–1.64) |
Duffey et al. (20) | Prospective cohort | Sugar-sweetened beverages | High TG (≥1.7 mmol/L or medication); low HDL-C (<1.04 mmol/L if male and 1.3 mmol/L if female or medication); high LDL (>130 mg/dL or medication) | TG: 2,627 (542), HDL: 1,837 (252), HDL: 2,640 (94) | RR for increase in each exposure quartile:TG: 1.06 (1.01–1.13)HDL: 1.06 (0.97–1.16)LDL: 1.18 (1.02–1.36) |
Reference | Study design | Exposure | Outcome | No of participants | Effect/association |
Bantle et al. (21) | Randomised crossover | 17E% fructose diet (14% added sugar) vs. glucose diet (14E% glucose, 3E% naturally occurring fructose) | Plasma glucose, serum insulin | 24 | Fructose vs. glucose diet: 24 h metabolic profiles of plasma glucose: 139 vs. 141, P=0.45; serum insulin 3486 vs. 4243 P=0.01. |
Black et al. (22) | Randomised crossover | 25E% sucrose vs. 10E% sucrose diets | Plasma glucose, serum insulin, insulin sensitivity, (two-step euglycaemic–hyperinsulinemic clamp), fasting plasma glucose, glucose level over 24 h | 13 | 10E% sucrose vs. 25E% sucrose diet:Interstitial glucose 5.9 vs. 6.1 mmol/L, NSFasting plasma glucose 5.6 vs. 5.6, NSFasting serum insulin 8.6 vs. 9.6. NS |
Dhingra et al. (19) | Prospective cohort | Soft drinks | Incidence of impaired fasting glucose (>5.5 mmol/L or diabetes). | 6,459 (1,426 cases) | OR = 1.25 (1.05–1.48) for ≥1 servings/day vs. none |
Duffey et al. (20) | Prospective cohort | Sugar-sweetened beverages | Incidence of impaired fasting glucose (>6.1 mmol/l or diabetes medication) | 2,160 (267 cases) | RR = 1.03 (0.95–1.12) moving across quartiles |
Four studies were identified on the association between intake of sugars and blood pressure (Table 5). Of the three prospective cohorts, one found a small increased risk of hypertension with intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (20) while the other two, investigating soft drinks (19) and fructose (23) did not find a significant association. No significant differences in blood pressure were found in a 6-week randomised cross-over trial comparing high (25E%) vs. moderate (10E%) sucrose intake (22).
Reference | Study design | Exposure | Outcome | No of participants | Effect/association |
Black et al. (22) | Randomised crossover | 25E% sucrose vs. 10E% sucrose diets | Blood pressure | 13 | 10E% sucrose vs. 25E% sucrose diet:Systolic/diastolic: 125/72 vs. 122/71 (no significant difference) |
Dhingra et al. (19) | Prospective cohort | Soft drinks | Incidence of high BP (>135/85 mmHg or medication). Measured blood pressure (average of 2 readings) | 4,752 (1,004 cases) | OR = 1.18 (0.96–1.44) for ≥1 servings/day vs. none |
Duffey et al. (20) | Prospective cohort | Sugar sweetened beverages | Incidence of high BP (>130/85 mmHg or medication) | 2,639 (609 cases) | RR = 1.06 (1.01–1.12) moving across quartiles |
Forman et al. (23) | Prospective cohort | Fructose | Hypertension (self-reported clinician-diagnosed) | NHS1: 88,540 (31,107 cases)NHS2: 97,315 (15,863 cases)HPFS: 37,375 (11,982 cases) | RR for highest vs. lowest quintilesNHS: 1.02 (0.99–1.06)NHS2: 1.03 (0.98–1.08)HPFS: 0.99 (0.93–1.05) |
Nine prospective cohort studies were identified for incidence of type 2 diabetes (Table 6). The results from the four studies on the association between intake of total sugars, sucrose or fructose and type 2 diabetes were inconclusive (24–27). Two of three studies found significant positive associations with total fructose intake (26, 27). None of the three studies reporting sucrose intake (25–27) and none of the three studies reporting total sugar intake (24, 25, 27) found a positive association with incident diabetes; three of them (24–26) even found an inverse association. The six studies reporting on sugar-sweetened beverages and type 2 diabetes are more conclusive. Four studies reported a significant increased relative risk of type 2 diabetes with increasing intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (27–30). Of the two studies that found no association (31, 32), one study observed a significant positive association in the model not adjusting for BMI (32).
Reference | Exposure | Outcome | No of participants | Effect/association |
Hodge et al. (24) | Sugars (not specified) | Type 2 diabetes (self-reported and confirmed from medical practitioners) | 31,276 (365 cases) | OR for difference between the 87.5th and 12.5th intake percentile: 0.72 (0.56–0.93), P=0.01 |
Janket et al. (25) | Total sugar, sucrose, fructose | Diabetes (self-reported) | 38,480 (918 cases) | RR for highest vs. lowest quintile:Total sugar: 0.77 (0.52–1.15), P-trend = 0.26Sucrose: 0.59 (0.39–0.88), P-trend = 0.05Fructose: 1.24 (0.84–1.85) P-trend = 0.30 |
de Koning et al. (28) | Sugar sweetened beverages (caffeinated colas, caffeine-free colas, other carbonated sugar-sweetened beverages and non-carbonated sugar-sweetened beverages) | Type 2 diabetes (self-reported) | 40,389 (2,680 cases) | RR of highest vs. lowest quartile:1.24 (1.09–1.40), P-trend < 0.01 |
Meyer et al. (26) | Sucrose, fructose | Type 2 diabetes | 35,988 (1,141 cases) | RR of highest vs. lowest quintile:Sucrose: 0.81 (0.67–0.99), P-trend = 0.027Fructose: 1.27 (1.06–1.54), P-trend = 0.0015 |
Montonen et al. (27) | Total sugar; sucrose; fructose; soda drinks | Type 2 diabetes (from drug register and medical records) | 4,304 (177 cases) | RR of highest vs. lowest quartile:Total sugars: 1.56 (0.99–2.46), P-trend = 0.10Sucrose: 1.12 (0.71–1.76), P-trend = 0.61Fructose: 1.90 (1.20–3.01), P-trend = 0.004Soft drinks: 1.60 (0.93–2.76), P-trend = 0.01 |
Odegaard et al. (29) | Soft drinks; other fruit and vegetable juices (80% were sweetened) | Type 2 diabetes (self-reported diagnosis and validated through hospital records and detailed telephone interview) | 43,580 (2,273 cases) | RR for 2 or more drinks/week vs. rarely consumed:Soft drinks: 1.34 (1.17–1.52) P-trend <0.0001Juice: 1.24 (1.01–1.53), P-trend = 0.09 |
Palmer et al. (32) | Sugar sweetened soft drinks; sweetened fruit drinks | Type 2 diabetes (self-reported; validated by in 229 subjects by physician) | 43,960 (2,713 cases) | IRR of ≥2 drinks/day vs. <1 drink/month:Soft drinks: 1.05 (0.90–1.23) (not adjusting for BMI: 1.24 (1.06–1.45); P-trend = 0.002)Fruit drinks: 1.31 (1.13–1.52); P-trend = 0.001 |
Paynter et al. (31) | Sweetened beverage (fruit punch, non-diet soda, orange or grapefruit juice) | Type 2 diabetes | 12,204 (1,437 cases) | HR of 2 or more/day vs. less than 1 drink/day:Men: 1.03 (0.82–1.28), P-trend = 0.94Women: 1.01 (0.79–1.29), P-trend = 0.58 |
Schulze et al. (30) | Sugar-sweetened soft drinks | Type 2 diabetes (self-reported; 98% were confirmed by medical record review in substudies) | 91,249 (741 cases) | RR of ≥1 drink/day vs. <1/month:1.39 (1.07–1.76), P-trend = 0.01 |
No study was identified examining the effect on sugar consumption on inflammation markers as defined in this systematic review. One prospective observational study on consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks and uric acid was identified reporting no association (33) (Table 7). The only study identified on cardiovascular disease, found a positive association with consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (34) (Table 8). Only one prospective cohort study on mortality was identified (35) (Table 9). This study found no association between sugar-sweetened soft drinks and mortality. We are therefore not able to state anything about the association between sugar intake and mortality, cardiovascular disease, uric acid or inflammation markers.
Reference | Study design | Exposure | Outcome | No of participants | Effect/association |
Bomback et al. (33) | Prospective cohort | Sugar-sweetened soft drinks | Hyperuricemia (>5.7 mg/dl for women, >7.0 mg/dl for men) | 9,451 (3,288 cases) | OR for >1 vs.<1 soda/day: 1.17 (0.95–1.43) |
Reference | Study design | Exposure | Outcome | No of participants | Effect/association |
Fung et al. (34) | Prospective cohort | Sugar-sweetened soda and fruit drinks | Incident coronary heart disease (reported with subsequent confirmation by medical records) | 88,520 (3,105 cases) | RR for ≥2/day vs. <1/month: 1.35 (1.07–1.69) |
Reference | Study design | Exposure | No of participants | Effect/association |
Paganini-Hill et al. (35) | Prospective cohort | Cola with sugar; other soft drinks with sugar | 13,624 (11,386 cases) | RR for >1 cans/week vs. none:Cola with sugar: 1.02 (0.92–1.13)Other soft drinks with sugar: 1.03 (0.92–1.16) |
Table 10 presents summary of the evidence. The quality of evidence was graded limited-no conclusions for the associations between intake of sugars and blood lipids, sugar intake and glucose tolerance/insulin sensitivity, sugar intake and blood pressure, sugar intake and uric acid, sugar intake and incidence of cardiovascular disease and sugar intake and type 2 diabetes. The quality of evidence was graded probable for the association between intake of sugar-sweetened beverages and type 2 diabetes.
Four relevant papers were identified in the last update until December 2011 (36–39). A prospective cohort study conducted in the Netherlands investigating carbohydrate quality found no association between intake of total sugars and incident type 2 diabetes (36). One intervention study (divided into two papers) investigated the effects of very-high fructose and very-high glucose diets during 4 weeks, and found no association with insulin sensitivity (38), while cholesterol and triglycerides were positively associated with fructose intake (37). One study that examined the effect of sucrose-sweetened soft drinks with those of isocaloric milk and non-caloric soft drink during 6 months found stronger adverse effects for sucrose-sweetened soft drinks on blood triglycerides and total cholesterol compared to the other groups (39). As the results of these studies would not have changed the overall conclusion of the paper, but further support a negative role of sugar-sweetened beverages, they were not included.
In this systematic review of prospective cohort studies and randomised controlled trials published during 2000–2011, data from prospective cohort studies suggest that sugar-sweetened beverages probably increases the risk of type 2 diabetes. The results were limited or inconsistent on the adverse effect of intake of total sugars, glucose or fructose on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. For other metabolic and cardiovascular outcomes and mortality, too few studies were available to draw conclusions.
Four of six prospective cohort studies found a positive association of sugar-sweetened beverage intake with type 2 diabetes. In general, larger studies more often reported a significant association. Other systematic reviews of prospective cohort studies have also found relatively consistent associations of sugar-sweetened beverages with type 2 diabetes (40). Part of the risk of sugar-sweetened beverage intake with incident type 2 diabetes seems to be mediated by obesity, as suggested by several of the prospective cohort studies in this systematic review and by a meta-analysis (40). For example, Palmer et al. (32) observed that the positive association between sugar-sweetened beverage intake and type 2 diabetes was no longer significant in a model adjusting for BMI. Schulze and co-workers (30) found that, after adjustments for BMI, the risk estimate for the association between intake of sugar-sweetened drinks and type 2 diabetes was halved, although still significant. Obesity was not included as an outcome in this systematic review. In other systematic reviews of prospective studies, sugar-sweetened beverage intake has been associated with a higher BMI or obesity in adolescents and adults (41).
Dietary intake of total sugars, sucrose or fructose was not consistently associated with development of type 2 diabetes in this systematic review of prospective epidemiological evidence published between 2000 and October 2010. One reason for this might be that a significant part of the consumed sugars are not added sugar but naturally occurring sugars in for example fruits. Studies have not associated intake of fruit in the recommended quantities with increased risk of type 2 diabetes (42).
For the association between sugar-sweetened beverages and type 2 diabetes, the dose where the risk of type 2 diabetes increased significantly was at consumption of two or more servings of sugar-sweetened beverages per week (29), or at several servings per week or more (27, 28, 30) in the studies finding a positive association. Interestingly, in one of the paper not finding an association they compared one can per day or less with two cans or more a day (31). This might be too small of a difference in sugar-sweetened beverage intake, and it is clearly different from the other studies that compare the high consumers (>1 or 2 cans) with those not consuming sugar-sweetened beverages or only rarely or use lowest compared to highest quartiles. This discrepancy in dietary studies has been discussed in papers pointing at the need to use a different approach when evaluating evidence-based medicine and evidence-based nutrition (43).
In observational studies, the sugar intake might be a marker of other dietary and lifestyle characteristics also associated with sugar intake. Most of the prospective cohort studies used validated semi-quantitative FFQs to assess dietary intakes. Although useful for epidemiological studies, these dietary assessment methods are often imprecise and prone to bias. Most of the observational cohort studies attempted to control for potential bias and confounding by adjustment for energy, other dietary factors, BMI, lifestyle factors and other variables in the multivariable analyses, but some residual confounding may remain. In addition, adjustments were made for BMI in some papers while others did not do this. The duration of the follow up period among the prospective cohort studies varied widely, from 4 to 24 years. It might be considered whether a follow up period of more than 10 years is too long as the diet may change during this period. For several of the prospective cohort studies, this was dealt with by repeated assessment of diet at varying frequencies during the follow-up.
The quality of evidence regarding the relation between sugar-sweetened beverages and risk of type 2 diabetes based on the prospective cohort studies was graded probable, meaning that the evidence is strong enough to support a judgement of a probable relationship. There are, according to the NNR systematic literature review manual, four criteria required for this grade. First, there must be evidence from at least two independent cohort studies. This review includes four prospective cohort studies showing a positive association. Second, there should be no substantial unexplained heterogeneity between or within study types of an association, or the direction of effect. Third, several of the studies need to be of good quality (graded A or B). All of the four prospective cohorts were graded B. Fourth, a biological plausibility of the observed association might be found. Some researchers have postulated that sugar-sweetened beverages, or calories consumed as beverages, have smaller effects on satiety, resulting in higher energy intake and more weight gain than with other dietary sources high in sugars (8, 44, 45). In addition, the frequency of consumption and the amount absorbed at any given time has been discussed (6, 8–10, 46). However, it cannot be excluded that the association of sugar-sweetened beverages is mediated by factors other than sugars. Increased fructose intake has been postulated as another biological mechanism explaining the increased risk for diabetes associated with sugar-sweetened beverage intake. Both sucrose (50% fructose) and high-fructose corn syrup (55% fructose), frequently used to sweeten soft drinks, contain similar amounts of fructose and glucose. Relative to glucose, fructose may increase liver triacylglycerol formation, fatty liver, visceral adiposity and insulin resistance (46). Nonetheless, the current evidence in humans indicating that high-fructose sweeteners have more adverse metabolic effects than sucrose on insulin resistance, fat distribution and other metabolic outcomes is limited or at best, suggestive.
Surprisingly, medium-to-long term randomised controlled trials on the metabolic effects of fructose, glucose and sucrose intake meeting the eligibility criteria were largely lacking. In addition, the trials included had rather few subjects. Six other intervention studies on sugar intake were excluded because of not having an appropriate control group. Overall, the findings suggest that fructose-sweetened beverage intake may have more adverse effects than glucose-sweetened beverage intake. Also, high sucrose intake may increase LDL cholesterol levels, but data are limited and in part inconsistent, and do not allow conclusions to be drawn. In a matched double-blind parallel-arm trial in 32 middle-aged overweight and obese men and women found adverse effects of 10 weeks of fructose beverage intake on visceral adiposity, insulin sensitivity and dyslipidemia (47). This study, although well carried out, carefully controlled and otherwise meeting eligibility criteria, was not included in this review because it was not randomised.
Extending the time frame for the systematic review to the 1980s for example would increase the number of studies. However, earlier reviews (6, 11) indicate that trial evidence on high fructose or sucrose intake on metabolic outcomes in the medium and long-term are inconsistent. A number of these are reviewed in the EFSA opinion on carbohydrates.
The heterogeneity in study designs and the problems induced by the composition of the diets could lead to discrepancies in results. For example, there may be differences in effects of added sugars in intervention studies in relation to the background diet. Regarding observational studies, we only included prospective studies. Many studies have examined the cross-sectional associations between sugar intake and risk markers and diseases. However, these studies are an even weaker measure of causality than prospective cohort studies (11). Furthermore, there is always a risk of publication bias as research with significant findings is more likely to get published.
This review focused on individuals that were considered generally healthy at baseline. However, it cannot be excluded that intake of sugars especially in individuals at risk might have more negative effect than the same amount in a healthy individual (11).
The recent reports from USDA and EFSA arrived at different conclusions in their evidence based approach regarding dietary added sugars. As our systematic review also suggests, data supporting an association of high intake of total sugars, sucrose or fructose with adverse health outcomes is only suggestive, and data for specific cut-offs is even more limited. A recent review found no evidence of adverse effects of normal dietary consumption of fructose on triglyceride concentrations or body weight in healthy, normal weight individuals (48). However, the USDA dietary guidelines take a more pragmatic, but less evidence-based approach. Because the epidemic of obesity is in simplistic terms based on excessive energy intake coupled with insufficient energy expenditure, the USDA recommended limiting energy intake from added sugars and saturated fat to no more than 15E%. This is also based on dietary surveys indicating that dietary added sugar contribute to a large part of the energy intake in the US population overall, and many of the most commonly consumed foods in the US population were high in added sugar with little nutrient value otherwise (3, 4). In the Nordic countries, intake of refined sugars is approximately 8–18E% depending on age, and marked segments of the population consume at least 20E%. Given the growing obesity epidemic and excess energy intake relative to energy expenditure also in Nordic countries, limiting added sugars also in Nordic countries might be one target for decreasing energy intake.
Data from prospective cohort studies published during 2000 to December 2011 suggest that sugar-sweetened beverages probably increase the risk of type 2 diabetes. For other metabolic and cardiovascular outcomes, or other sources of sugars, too few prospective cohort studies were available to draw conclusions. Evidence from medium and long-term studies on the metabolic effects of high-fructose or high sucrose intake is also too limited to draw conclusions. Although only one of the studies included in this systematic review is actually conducted in a Nordic setting, the Finnish Mobile Clinic Health Examination Survey with baseline 1966–1972, we feel that the results can reasonably be transferred to the Nordic setting. The exposure range in most of the studies is similar to the Nordic setting, and most were conducted in cohorts of mainly well-educated individuals with largely European background. Overall, specific cut-offs for sugar intake based on strong scientific evidence cannot be made (5), but pragmatic interpretation of the evidence as was done by the USDA (3) would support limiting added sugars and sugar-sweetened beverage intake to, e.g. 10E% as recommended in the NNR4. Specific recommendations regarding sugar-sweetened beverage intake in particular may be warranted.
All authors contributed equally to the process of choosing a topic, defining the aim, finding Search words, choosing full text papers from the abstract list, choosing full text papers to include, fill in the evidence tables and evaluate the papers. Birgisdottir and Øverby made a draft of the paper. Sonestedt and Laaksonen completed the draft. All authors contributed to final changes and comments.
The authors have not received any funding or benefits from industry or elsewhere to conduct this study.
*Emily Sonestedt
Department of Clinical Sciences - Malmö
Lund University, Clinical Research Centre
Jan Waldenströms gata 35
SE-20502 Malmö
Sweden
Email: emily.sonestedt@med.lu.se